June 23, 2024

State of the Race : France, June 30, 2024

On June 21, Le Figaro released the results of the Ifop-Fudicial poll, conducted for them (along with LCI and Sud Radio) that showed, potentially, that France may become ungovernable, with two nearly equal opposing sides. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the National Rally party may win outright.

The French National Assembly has 577 seats, chosen according to electoral districts. An absolute majority is 289.

In 2017:

Macron’s party, La République en Marche, won 306 seats which, combined with 42 seats from MoDems, gave them a very comfortable majority.
The Socialist Party, once one of the two dominant parties, was cut to 30 seats, down from 258 in 2012.
Les Républicains, the other dominant party, was down to 112, combined with 17 seats from the UDI; in 2012, then called UMP, they had 185 seats.
La France Insoumise had 17 seats; it was founded in 2016.
The National Front had 8 seats, up from 2 in 2012.

This does not add up to 577; the various parties gain support from minor or regional parties.

In 2022, the Assembly that Macron just dissolved:

Ensemble, the Presidential Majority including Renaissance (formerly La République en Marche), MoDem, and Horizons, a micro party founded by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, was down to 244–a relative majority, but one that would require alliances and compromise to pass anything.
La Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale (Nupes), the alliance of the Left–La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, Les écologistes–won 127. They did not govern as an alliance.
Les Républicains won 61.
The National Rally (formerly the National Front) won 89.

The Ifop/Fiducial poll published on June 21, made the following projections for seats:

First, and currently leading, are the RN/Ciottistes, the Union des Droits. It is essentially the National Rally party, with Ciotti of Les Républicains scrambling to throw together some nominees out of the split Les Républicains. This group is projected to take between 200-240 seats. Jordan Bardella, the head of the RN and their choice for Prime Minister, has said that he will not take office unless he has an absolute majority. He might change his mind; but he might also be thinking that alliances could dilute the message of the party for the 2027 elections.

In second place, the Nouveau Front Populaire, as of now, is projected at 180-210 seats. Depending on the outcome of individual races, they could come in equal or close to the RN, splitting the Assembly in two. What they don’t have is a choice for Prime Minister to put in front of the voters: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head and founder of LFI, has been making it very clear that “of course” he should be the prime minister, but he is considered toxic, even by many in his own party. Indeed, he has suffered perhaps a greater fall in popularity since 2022, when he came in a close third in the first round of the presidential race, than Macron.

In third place, the Presidential Majority, including MoDem and the Horizons micro party, is projected to get between 80-110 seats.

Maybe the “non-Ciotti Republicans” could get as many as 40-60 seats, though that would require some luck, given that they are only at 6.5% of “intentions to vote.”

The “intentions to vote” percentages show the following: