France: The Second Round
On July 7, 2024, the French will go to the polls for the second round of the Legislative Assembly. Out of 577 districts, 76 deputies were elected outright, in the first round. In 2022, that figure was only 4. Of the 76, 39 were from the National Rally (RN), including Marine Le Pen; 31 were from the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) including Olivier Faure, chair of the Parti Socialiste (PS). The other six included both Ciotti/RN and non-Ciotti candidates on the Right, as well as two from Macron’s Ensemble group[1]
There were also 306 triangulaires, or candidates in which three candidates qualified for the second round; in 2022 there were only eight. The difference, according to Le Monde, comes from the high level of abstention in 2022, when just under 50% of all eligible voters cast a ballot. In this election, voting levels were about 20 points higher, in the high 60th percentile, or even beyond. (A higher number of ballots cast allows candidates to reach the 12.5% of registered voters that they need to get into the second round.) One could say, I suppose, that the elevated number of those going out to vote indicates an increased civic participation. Unfortunately, it’s probably fear on the Left and excitement on the Extreme Right, as the National Rally comes close to victory.[2]
The candidates who came in third in each district had until the end of Tuesday to “desist,” and many have done so. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to his credit, immediately called upon all candidates of the NFP who were in that position to withdraw; after some equivocating, Ensemble did the same, marking a return of the old “barrage” of the “republican front” against all National Front/Rally candidates.
As a result, 224 third-place candidates have pulled their names from the contest, with 134 coming from the NFP; 82 from Ensemble; 4 from the RN; and 1 unaffiliated. That means that 224 of the 501 second round elections will be a straight-up contest between extreme right and some variety of centrist/Left.
An absolute majority of the National Assembly is 289. The National Rally, with 36 seats already, would not reach that number even in the unlikely event that they won all 224, which would get them only to 260. But they will also have a chance to pick up many of the 227 triangulaires.
According to a recent poll by OpinionWay, commissioned by Les Echos, the RN will not pick up enough seats for an absolute majority because of the hasty construction of the “Republican Front” and the many drop-outs; the estimate is that they will be able to pick up 205 to 230 seats–not enough for an absolute majority, but certainly enough to be the relative majority party.[3] The RN moves in lock-step; La France Insoumise does as well, with several dissident members (those who had had disagreements with Mélenchon) purged from the elections a few weeks ago. But many in the NFP dislike the LFI, and that coalition, like NUPES from 2022, may well implode. Macron will leave them to it; he will be in Washington next week for the NATO summit.
The timing is bad for Macron (though he chose it), but one thing is clear: he will no longer have the right, as he did for the first seven years, to choose his own Prime Minister.
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[1] Eléonore Aparicio, “Résultats législatives 2024,” RTL, June 30, 2024. https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/resultats-legislatives-2024-qui-sont-les-deputes-elus-des-le-premier-tour-7900399693
[2] For a list of the 2nd round races, see Pierre Breteau, et. al. “Législatives 2024,” Le Monde, July 1. https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/legislatives-2024-pour-faire-barrage-au-rn-195-candidats-et-candidates-se-sont-deja-desistes-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html
[3]Grégoire Poussielgue, “Sondage Exclusif, Législatives 2024,”
