The Rassemblement National, 2024
The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen had about a month’s time, from the June 9 European elections, to the July 7 Legislative elections, to anticipate their coming takeover of France. In addition to their own momentum, they had another asset, or so they thought, in Eric Ciotti: as head of Les Républicains (LR), he had announced that his party was joining the RN in an electoral alliance, to the outrage of other LR leaders who had not been consulted. The non-Ciotti Republicans won 46 seats, giving them, in a divided legislature, an important negotiating position. (But not a dominant position: and they may be may be overplaying their hand, in insisting on an LR prime minister.). The Nouveau Front Populaire won 182 seats; Ensemble, Macron’s coalition, came in second, with 168; and the RN won 143 seats, of which 17 were Ciottis.)[1].
And finally, by naming Bardella as prime minister in advance, they inadvertently subjected him to scrutiny. Bardella, for all his gifts as a speaker, for all his undoubted popularity, has largely been in the RN cocoon since he joined the National Front in 2012 at the age of 16; no matter how careful the mentorship and the molding of him as future “dauphin” has been–even his election to the European Parliament in 2019–his political career and training has been brief, with none of it occurring in a Ministry or in the rough and tumble of the French National Assembly. Bardella’s prominent position as president of the party (elected in November 2022) had exposed him to some inter party-rivalries and created some enemies–including Louis Aliot, mayor of Perpignan, an older member of the party who ran against him for the leadership. (To make things more complicated, Aliot and Marine Le Pen had just broken up after a long partnership.) Bardella is now being criticized for his management of the party and for losing an election they were poised to win.
On the evening of the election, Bardella came before his disappointed followers who had been prepared to celebrate a victory. Though the RN themselves had made an electoral alliance, they attacked the Center and Left for doing the same in the second round, by mutually withdrawing candidates who came in third and making many districts a two-person race. Jordan Bardella, in his first statement after the results came in, described the actions of the other two parties as “a political alliance against nature,” that “would throw France into the arms of the extreme Left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.” Re-elected RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who was visibly upset on BFMTV that evening, later described the second round “coalition” as “all the debris of French political life” who will soon “destroy themselves.”[2] (He may be right about the last part.)
Le Point’s essay, “Anatomy of a Fall,” pinpointed a number of issues, including leadership, arrogance–and above all, candidates. Bardella had claimed that they were “ready” with 577 candidates and suppléantes (substitutes) in each district. Marine Le Pen had made “rootedness” in the terrain their chief priority; in 2014, she celebrated the victory of Steeve Briois in the mayor’s race in Hénin-Beaumont (a town of 25,000) as if it were the presidential race. And indeed, it was the foothold in the deindustrializing region of Hauts-de-France, a formerly Left region that has been rapidly losing seats to the Right.
Jordan Bardella’s leadership team had apparently failed to maintain this long term strategic goal; his director of departmental federations, Gilles Pennelle, in charge of managing the RN departmental delegates who chose the local candidates, resigned on the day after the elections. “In Mayenne,” complained an anonymous insider, “everyone knew that the candidate was dingo. What was done about it? Nothing.”[3]
The “dingo” candidate in Mayenne apparently meant Jean-Michel Cadenas, head of the Mayenne RNs (they used the masculine form of the noun) who chose the candidates in that department. He had been known for the occasional fake-news tweet (“Volodomyr is no longer in Kiev”) that he had taken down.[4] Otherwise, one might have suspected that Annie Bell was the bad Mayenne candidate in question. Annie Bell made it to the second round in Mayenne, but lost to incumbent Yannick Favennec of Horizon (Ensemble), 30%-69%.
Annie Bell had a past; Ouest-France discovered it, following the lead of some social media posts. In January 1995, concealing a gun under her coat, she and her husband entered the mayoralty building in Ernée and took a hostage, the secretary-general. They were facing bankruptcy. She fired a shot, which missed, and held onto the weapon; the gendarmerie chief negotiated with her for three hours before she finally handed him the gun. The secretary general, Henri Gernigon, had shown some pity for the couple’s situation: “The only way to prove they existed, was to set off a sort of media frenzy (médiatisation). And they succeeded!” She received a sentence of ten months in prison. A few years later, as volunteers for a charity, she and her husband seem to have taken some of the money that was collected. Contacted before the second round, she stated that she did not wish to discuss the matter until after the elections.[5]
The “phantom candidate” of Bouches-du-Rhône (Marseille) took advantage of the RN’s dominance of the region. La Provence noted that several “racist, conspiracy theorist, and anti-science” messages posted on her Facebook page had been hastily taken down. They had managed to find a picture of her and knew that she was 64. Everything else was a mystery, except for the fact that she would sit in the National Assembly.[6]
I’ll refrain from posting the candidate, Ludivine Daoud, posing in the Nazi General’s hat. She withdrew after the picture was circulated on social media.
The RN has long fought a battle of perception and reality. They have purged some of the worst violent and identitarian groups from their ranks. They have also tried to conquer the impression of amateurism. The speed and unexpectedness of these elections forced them to nominate a number of people who clearly do not belong in the National Assembly. Is Bardella to blame? Will Gilles Pennelle be enough of a sacrifice? We will likely see some shakeups in the party apparatus in the days to come.
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[1] Raphaëlle Aubert, et. al., “La carte des résultats des législatives 2024 au second tour,” Le Monde, July 7, 2024. https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/08/la-carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-2024-au-second-tour-la-composition-de-l-assemblee-et-le-depute-elu-dans-votre-circonscription_6247510_4355771.html. There are some additional seats, including 14 categorized as “right”; 13 as “left”; 6 as “center”; 4 regionalists, or local parties; and 1 as “diverse.”
[2] Charles Sapin, “Au RN, anatomie d’une chute,” Le Point, July 9, 2024. https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/legislatives-2024-anatomie-de-la-chute-de-la-maison-rn-09-07-2024-2565166_20.php] “Anatomy of a Fall” borrows the title of the hit movie last year.
[3] Sapin, “Anatomie d’une chute.”
[4] Vincent Jaouen, “Législatives: du RN à LFI, ces candidatures qui posent problème,” Le Point, June 26, 2024. https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/legislatives-du-rn-a-lfi-ces-candidatures-qui-posent-probleme-26-06-2024-2563949_20.php
[5] Clémentine Marié, “Les casseroles d’Annie Bell, Le Courrier de la Mayenne, July 2, 2024.https://www.lecourrierdelamayenne.fr/actualite-25752-les-casseroles-d-annie-bell-candidate-du-rn-en-mayenne-elle-avait-commis-une-prise-d-otage-armee-en-1995
[6] Sophie Manelli, “Législatives: candidate RN fantôme, Monique Griseti,” La Provence, July 8, 2024. https://www.laprovence.com/article/politique/1578568223728515/legislatives-candidate-rn-fantome-monique-griseti-remporte-la-1ere-circonscription-des-bouches-du-rhone?at_content=photo&at_term=laprovence&at_campaign=twitter&at_source=nonli&at_medium=Social
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