The second district of Hautes Alpes should have been easy.  Joël Giraud, age 64, has been the deputy since 2002.  In 2017, though a member of the Parti Radical de Gauche, he agreed to be invested by La République en Marche (now Renaissance).  An énarque (a graduate of the prestigious École Nationale d’Administration) he returned to his rural department and entered local government, serving as the mayor of l’Argentière-la-Bessée (pop. a little over 2000) since 1889.  He had held both positions until 2017, when the non-cumul des mandats law had required him to give up one or the other; he had stayed in the National Assembly.  He was named Minister of Territorial Cohesion–a post that focused on rural France–under the prime ministership of Jean Castex, from July 2020 to May 2022.

He was particularly concerned, in regard to his own department, with climate change and agriculture, and with working to find a healthy balance between tourism and preservation of the mountains from environmental degradation.  For the rest of the country, he had as minister  made two or three trips into rural areas every week, listening to inhabitants and “selling” Macron or, as he put it, “listening to this France of the countryside which has been forgotten for too long and where people are turning towards the RN.”  He also gave interviews to the local press wherever he went, bringing the message that the Macron government was ready to help.  He often met with cynicism.  He heard two main issues, over and over: the “medical desert” of the countryside, which was losing doctors; and the closing of train stations, thus cutting off access, except by car, to the rest of the country.  As a deputy he had lobbied railroads for more scheduled trains for his own department, and had been largely successful.[1]

During Giraud’s ministry a rooster named Maurice was instrumental in bringing attention to the occasional clash between tourism and agriculture.  Maurice lived in Saint-Pierre d’Oléron, a village in an island off France’s western coast, and apparently crowed too loudly for the vacationing summer people.  Maurice’s plight led to a bill to preserve “the sensory heritage of the countryside,”–the sights, sounds, and smells that were unavoidable in regard to farming, and which also provided an emotional link, for many, to France’s largely agricultural past. [2]

Giraud left the Ministry, along with Castex (replaced as Prime Minister by Élisabeth Borne) in May 2022, and returned to his life as a deputy.  In early 2024, and just after Macron had replaced Borne with Gabriel Attal, he was interviewed by La Provence.  Had he been surprised by the naming of Attal? “Obviously the president didn’t want to name as Prime Minister one of the heavyweights who dream of succeeding him, [so] I was not completely surprised.”  But he liked Attal very much, as “a young man who had greatly respected the Parliament when he was ministerial delegate for the budget.  As for the rest of the Cabinet, he was not exactly “thrilled” with the appointment of members of Les Républicains in two key positions.  He himself had not expected to be named to a post, he said, because “I had not shown any particular zeal”; it was not his “cup of tea.”  The government in his view, and with this last shakeup, had become “very Parisian and very much to the right.”  Shrewdly (and perhaps too honestly) he saw the new cabinet as a “provisional government” because they knew they were facing major losses in the European elections.  Was he still a Macroniste?  Adroitly, and at some length, Giraud avoided answering the question.

The reporter asked him if the presidential party was going to “implode” at the end of Macron’s term.  He didn’t think so; but he was clearly worried about the state of politics in France.  His answer: “We have a system such that the Left is represented largely by La France Insoumise, which is not a “Governing Left,” [i.e., willing to take on the responsibility of government], which goes so far as to support Hamas, which is insanity.  And we have a very strong extreme right.”  He wanted to see a centrist government based on humanist values.  Asked who might do that, he suggested Jean Castex, who was “hyper respected” by the opposition, as well as Édouard Philippe (Prime Minister from 2017 to 2020).  “After the European elections,” he continued, “the seismic shift risks becoming total,and there will be some recomposition.”  He noted, in closing, that Marine Le Pen had never been closer to the presidency, a fact which filled him with “disquiet.”[3]

Coming several months before the European elections, this was an elegiac interview, a vision of a  presidential term that was, in his mind, already over.  When Macron announced the dissolution, Giraud immediately announced that he was retiring from politics: “I have already explained that the govt was too far to the right and too Parisian.”  The government had neglected the rural areas and the social-democrats, adding that the dissolution of the National Assembly was in effect the announcement of “a government of cohabitation between the president of the Republic and the extreme right, allied with [his right-leaning] party.  That is not part of my political DNA.  I believe I have well served France and the Hautes Alpes.  But this world is no longer mine.”[4]

Who would follow him?  The Presidential majority openly courted two mayors, who turned them down.  Mayor Arnaud Murgia, the right-leaning mayor of Briançon, said he preferred to remain in his current office.  Marcel Cannat is mayor of Réotier, situated on the slopes of a mountain, with a central population of just over 200 but linked with a number of other communes; he too refused: “I am sensitive to the very many messages of support and encouragement that I have received, but after long reflection, I don’t find in myself the strength at the present hour.”  He preferred, he added, to continue his missions in the town–the roads, the fire department.”[5] Renaissance finally invested Sébastien Fine, a “macronist of the first hour” who had joined the new party in 2017 and who, like Giraud, considered himself to be center left.  He was the mayor of Villar-Saint-Pancrace, a village of about 1500. Giraud endorsed him unreservedly, and has been campaigning with him.  Fine stressed that he wanted to “fight against all extremisms, defend the [particular needs] of our mountain territories,” and support agriculture.[6]

His competitors included a member of Lutte Ouvrière, a Trotskyist party that always runs and never makes an alliance with other parties: Boris Guignard. Asked how he would conduct himself in the National Assembly. Guignard stated that he would act “in the interests of the exploited,” and would “denounce all concessions made to the corporate establishment and to reactionaries. I desire nevertheless to reaffirm that for the workers, there will be neither a good Parliament, nor a good government: we will change our lot ourselves by our collective struggles.”[7] Duly noted.

The Nouveau Front Populaire candidate is Valérie Rossi, a member of the Socialist Party; she will defend the NFP platform and make sure that the government takes account of their local needs.

The RN candidate is Louis Albrand.  His primary program is to control both legal and illegal immigration: “above a certain [level], all processes of assimilation are impossible.”  As for how he would conduct himself while in office, Albrand seems in tune with the region.  He mentions, for example, “the problem of the wolf”; farmers send their flocks into the mountains and suffer losses, and government policy is too restrictive to handle the issue, a problem that had lasted throughout the Macron administrations. (The farmers were constantly asked for reports, reports one of them; in 2017, he had brought his dead sheep to the mayor’s office. [8])

Albrand also mentions the “diversion” of the main highway to avoid La Roche-de-Rame, a village of under a thousand people who have trucks constantly going through their one-lane town center. A recent government plan for “mitigation” calls for the destruction of four houses (to widen the turning radius) and the addition of a bike lane. The longtime leader of the community association is Jean-François Albrand, who may or may not be related; the town has been trying to get the road moved for seventy years. [9]. Of all the candidates interviewed, it was only Albrand who inserted local issues.

There is also an independent candidate, Johann Mondain, who somehow has felt called upon to run.

Update: Albrand came in first, with 33.88%. Rossi (PS) came in second, with 32.7%. Sébastien Fine, of Macron’s party, received 26.7%. He has stepped down and endorsed Rossi.

Update: Valérie Rossi won.

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Header Photo 124547141 | Hautes © Wessel Cirkel | Dreamstime.com

[1] Joél Giraud, le VRP rurality’ de Macron,” La Croix, March 2, 2021.  https://www.la-croix.com/Joel-Giraud-VRP-ruralite-Macron-bat-campagne-2022-2021-03-02-1301143350

[2] Aurelien Breeden, “French Roosters Now Crow with the Law Behind Them,” NY Times, January 24, ning summer people complained about him.  The bill was to preserve “the sensory heritage of the countryside.” 2021.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/world/europe/france-countryside-noises-smells-law.html

[3] Thomas Blanchon, “”Un gouvernement trop à droite et trop parisien,’” La Provence, February 19, 2024.https://www.laprovence.com/article/region/42404436918270/un-gouvernement-trop-a-droite-et-trop-parisien-pour-lex-ministre-joel-giraud-depute-des-hautes-alpes

[4] “Le député Joël Giraud arrête la politique,” Le Dauphiné Libéré, June 9, 2024.https://c.ledauphine.com/politique/2024/06/09/dissolution-le-depute-joel-giraud-arrete-la-politique

[5] Sidonie Canetto, “Élections législatives 2024: Joël Giraud,” France3, Provence, Alpes-Côte d’azur.  June 6, 2024.https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/hautes-alpes/elections-legislatives-2024-dans-la-circonscription-de-joel-giraud-une-succession-convoitee-dans-les-hautes-alpes-2984945.html?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral; ”Elections législatives dans les Hautes-Alpes: Marcel Cannat,” BFMTV, https://www.msn.com/fr-fr/actualite/france/%C3%A9lections-l%C3%A9gislatives-dans-les-hautes-alpes-le-maire-de-r%C3%A9otier-marcel-cannat-ne-sera-pas-candidat/ar-BB1o71Qa

[6] Yoann Gavoille, “Renaissance: la tentation Fine dans la deuxième circonscription,” Le Dauphiné libéré, June 12, 2024.  https://c.ledauphine.com/elections/2024/06/12/renaissance-la-tentation-fine

[7] Justin Mourez, “Législatives: les candidats de la 2e circonscription en quatre questions,” Le Dauphiné libéré, June 24, 2024.  https://c.ledauphine.com/elections/2024/06/24/legislatives-les-candidats-de-la-2e-circonscription-en-quatre-questions. This article interviewed all the candidates, asking the same four questions of each; all of the following comments come from this very informative article.

[8] Séverine Mizera, “Nouveau plan loup,” Le Dauphiné libéré, February 29, 2024.  https://c.ledauphine.com/environnement/2024/02/29/nouveau-plan-loup-ce-ne-sont-que-des-annonces-rien-n-est-fait-pour-nous

[9] “La Roche-de-Rame,” TFI Info. May 7. 2019. https://www.tf1info.fr/societe/13h-tf1-la-roche-de-rame-hautes-alpes-ou-en-est-le-projet-de-deviation-de-la-route-nationale-reclame-par-les-habitants-2120480.html; Fanny Pechiney and Nolwenn Autret, “La Roche-de-Rame: Nouvelle Manifestation,” BFMdici, November 4, 2023.  https://www.bfmtv.com/bfm-dici/la-roche-de-rame-nouvelle-manifestation-contre-le-projet-d-amenagement-de-la-rn94_AN-202311040329.html

On June 21, Le Figaro released the results of the Ifop-Fudicial poll, conducted for them (along with LCI and Sud Radio) that showed, potentially, that France may become ungovernable, with two nearly equal opposing sides. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the National Rally party may win outright.

The French National Assembly has 577 seats, chosen according to electoral districts. An absolute majority is 289.

In 2017:

• Macron’s party, La République en Marche, won 306 seats which, combined with 42 seats from MoDems, gave them a very comfortable majority.
• The Socialist Party, once one of the two dominant parties, was cut to 30 seats, down from 258 in 2012.
• Les Républicains, the other dominant party, was down to 112, combined with 17 seats from the UDI; in 2012, then called UMP, they had 185 seats.
• La France Insoumise had 17 seats; it was founded in 2016.
• The National Front had 8 seats, up from 2 in 2012.

This does not add up to 577; the various parties gain support from minor or regional parties.

In 2022, the Assembly that Macron just dissolved:

• Ensemble, the Presidential Majority including Renaissance (formerly La République en Marche), MoDem, and Horizons, a micro party founded by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, was down to 244–a relative majority, but one that would require alliances and compromise to pass anything.
• La Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale (Nupes), the alliance of the Left–La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, Les écologistes–won 127. They did not govern as an alliance.
• Les Républicains won 61.
• The National Rally (formerly the National Front) won 89.

The Ifop/Fiducial poll published on June 21, made the following projections for seats:

First, and currently leading, are the RN/Ciottistes, the Union des Droits. It is essentially the National Rally party, with Ciotti of Les Républicains scrambling to throw together some nominees out of the split Les Républicains. This group is projected to take between 200-240 seats. Jordan Bardella, the head of the RN and their choice for Prime Minister, has said that he will not take office unless he has an absolute majority. He might change his mind; but he might also be thinking that alliances could dilute the message of the party for the 2027 elections.

In second place, the Nouveau Front Populaire, as of now, is projected at 180-210 seats. Depending on the outcome of individual races, they could come in equal or close to the RN, splitting the Assembly in two. What they don’t have is a choice for Prime Minister to put in front of the voters: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head and founder of LFI, has been making it very clear that “of course” he should be the prime minister, but he is considered toxic, even by many in his own party. Indeed, he has suffered perhaps a greater fall in popularity since 2022, when he came in a close third in the first round of the presidential race, than Macron.

In third place, the Presidential Majority, including MoDem and the Horizons micro party, is projected to get between 80-110 seats.

Maybe the “non-Ciotti Republicans” could get as many as 40-60 seats, though that would require some luck, given that they are only at 6.5% of “intentions to vote.”

The “intentions to vote” percentages show the following:

• Rn/Ciotti, 35%
• Nouveau Front Populaire, 29%
• Presidential Majority, 21.5% (and falling).

The elections are a week from today, on June 30.

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Ministère de l’Intérieur

John Timsit, “Légilatives: sans majorité absolue, le RN en tête,” Le Figaro, June 21, 2024.https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/en-direct-legislatives-a-une-semaine-du-premier-tour-un-week-end-de-campagne-sous-haute-tension-20240622https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/pour-francois-hollande-jean-luc-melenchon-devrait-plutot-etre-discret-20240622

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